| The Panic
of 1893-Financial World Even before Cleveland takes office
an Economic crisis is seen to be brewing. Ten days before the
inauguration, the Philadelphia and Reading Railroad files bankruptcy
proceedings.
Later, prices of grain, cotton, steel,
and timber fall steadily, while the stock market
fluctuates wildly. Many financiers, including August
Belmont, J.P. Morgan and Henry Villard, warn Cleveland
that a panic is nearing, and add their pressure to get a
repeal of the Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890, which
they blame for the crisis.
The chief fear among Eastern financiers and businessmen
is that in a panic the United States could easily be
forced off the gold standard. Early in May the panic
begins. More railroads go broke; many of the great
financial trusts begin to collapse; European banks begin
selling their American stocks and bonds, and a huge run
on banks ensues, until more than 500 Banks have failed.
A vigorous battle begins, with the goal of repealing the
Sherman Act. Forces for and against repeal are lined up
geographically: the West and South favor retention of
the act, and the East favors immediate repeal. Despite
the repeal of the act in October, the deepening
depression is becoming worldwide, and is wiping out
prosperity in all sections of the economy.
1The Financial World
The events of the past week will pass into Wall Street
history as the "industrial panic." As a panic it was the
worst since 1873, and the full force of it fell on the
industrial stocks. It fell upon them because the
speculation was concentrated in that group, and it did
not touch the railroad shares with any severity because
so little has been doing in them as compared with the
industrials. One railroad stock there had been an
inflated speculation in, and it suffered as much as the
industrials, Manhattan. The time of extreme stress
lasted over three days. It reached its most acute stage
on Friday morning, when for nearly two hours it seemed
as if the whole Street would go down in a crash of
bankruptcy similar to 1873.
By noon the worst was over; by the afternoon there had
been a rebound of prices almost as great as the morning
fall: and three o'clock struck the excited throngs of
brokers on the floor of the Exchange gave vent to a wild
cheer, thankful that the trying day was over. Yesterday
the market was feverish and from feverishness it is
likely to quiet down into a weak dullness, like a
patient who has been exhausted by violent spasms. It is
unnecessary to note here the extreme declines, or the
rapid recoveries in prices. They have already been set
forth minutely and at length. But it may be said that to
see the like, one must go back twenty years: and in
those days it was all railroad stocks. There were no
others to speculate in.
The fact that they were railroad stocks, and not
industrials, did not secure them against the effects of
excessive speculation; neither because this panic, of
1893, has taken place in the industrials, does it follow
that industrial stocks are of less value than railroad
stocks. When a period of financial or commercial stress
comes upon us, whatever speculation has been the most
active in suffers the most in the general collapse.
This is equally true of securities or commodities, or
of any group of securities. We have seen (not to go back
to the old days of gold speculation) some terrible days
in Wall Street when the trunk line stocks were the storm
centers, when the Gould securities were, and Atchison
and Union Pacific, and notably when the group of stocks
known as the Velars wrought wreck and ruin. It was these
latter which gave Wall Street its last bad time previous
to the past week. Then there were no industrials, for
those stocks were at the time few in number and but
little traded in. They, therefore, were not responsible.
This time they are. Why? A few figures will show. The
first of the industrial group which the speculative
public took a fancy to was American Refineries stock,
called, for short, Sugar. It took the popular fancy,
because the company made large profits and paid big
dividends. Speculation in it became a craze, and then
followed in rapid succession the formation of other
large companies and the listing of their stocks on the
Exchange. Since first Sugar became prominent in public
speculation, we have had listed the securities of nine
or ten companies with capital stocks varying from
$35,000,000 to $8,000,000.
Here is a brief enumeration of all, the capital given
being the combined common and preferred stocks of each:
Sugar, $73,000,000; Cotton Oil, (reorganized,)
$30,000,000; Distilling, $35,000,000; Tobacco,
$29,000,000; General Electric, $34,000,000; Cordage,
$25,000,000; Lead, $30,000,000; Linseed Oil,
$18,000,000; Rubber, $26,000,000; Starch, $8,000,000.
The total foots up nearly $310,000,000, all the creation
of a few years. In addition these companies have bonds
to the amount of about $35,000,000. Here, then, is a
mass of $310,000,000 of stocks, of recent creation, in
which public speculation has been extremely active, so
much so as to leave the old railroad favorites of
speculation quite in the shade, but which have not as
yet found a settled standing among the financial
community.
Their value as collateral is uncertain, they are looked
upon with suspicion by the conservative, they are taken
at the banks with caution and held only on sufferance;
and whenever the money market suggests to bank managers
the necessity of a contraction of credits, they are the
first to be thrown out of loans. In this we have all the
elements which go to make up a highly speculative class
of stocks, liable to extreme fluctuations in price,
violent movements up and down, in short all that the
industrials have been in the market.
If we go a step further, and ask why is their value
uncertain, a variety of causes may be cited: but chief
among them is that the general public have not that
information about the working of the properties the
securities represent which they have about the working
of railroads. Some of the companies make very full
reports; but most do not. If all did, it would still be
true that the speculative and investing public would be
comparatively in the dark, because of the variety of
trades. Wall Street has had thirty years education in
the one business of railroad transportation, and is
familiar with all the problems which make for or against
it. It knows more about railroads than anything else;
and yet with its thirty years' education acquired at the
cost of many disastrous experiences, it makes mistakes
and will continue to make them.
How, then, is it likely to know much about sugar
refining, about rope making, about lead, rubber, starch,
tobacco, &c., which have only just come before it. When
a railroad company makes a report, a thousand eager
minds dissect it. But put before the same people the
report of one of the industrial companies, and unless
the inquirer has technical knowledge of the trade his
opinion on the report would be of little value. Until,
therefore, the speculative and investing public becomes
more familiar with the working of the various properties
which the chief industrial stocks represent, the values
will remain uncertain.
The knowledge will certainly be acquired. The
industrial stocks are not on Wall Street from caprice,
or from ephemeral causes. They are there from necessity,
as the effects of industrial development. The causes
which have brought them there will keep them there; and
the knowledge which is now the property of the few will
be diffused and become the property of the many. It was
just the same with the railroad stocks.
The centre of the late storm was the Cordage Company;
the prominent figure in the general speculation was Mr.
S.V. White. The failure of the Cordage Company started
the demoralization, the failure of Mr. White was the
climax of the panic. Mr. White's methods of speculation
are tolerably well known. He is at his best in
adversity, and his worst in prosperity. The courage of a
man who could try to corner the corn crop of the United
States with $400,000, is beyond question. The incidental
fact that he failed, does not detract from the boldness
of the conception.
In his recent speculations he seems to have undertaken
to run Manhattan, Sugar, and several other properties.
It is understood that Mr. Sage has acquired his
Manhattan, and the Havemeyers his Sugar. The failure of
the house of Henry Allen & Co., was due to the collapse
in Cordage, the main speculative accounts in the stock
being with that firm. It is understood that the losses
of the firm will be made up by the customers through
whom they were incurred. The heaviest sufferers by the
failure of the Cordage Company are its own officers.
They were firm believers in the property, and heavy
holders of its stock when the crash came. This places
them in a better position before the public than if they
had run and left others to suffer.
Their mistake as managers was in trying to do too big a
business on insufficient working capital. They borrowed
until borrowing became impossible, through the general
contraction of credits forced on the banks, and then
came the crash. The past is gone, and it is no use
weeping over it. The future is the consideration. These
gentlemen are rich; they have large resources. The
stockholders and the public will look to them as honest
men, desiring to retain their high standing in the
community, to do all that lies in their power, at
whatever cost of personal sacrifice, to put their
company on its feet again, in a sounder position, and to
conduct its affairs on surer lines guided by the bitter
experience of the past. They can do this. The future of
the company is with them.
As to the general market, the usual experience is that
after such a convulsion it settles down slowly into a
condition of rest and recuperation. There is no reason
to expect it will do otherwise now. The strong can stand
and the weak have been sided over. Liquidation has been
very thorough, and what is yet to come will doubtless
come slowly. There are not a few stocks on the list
which are very low, and these may be expected to work
upward even if the general list continues flat.
It is gratifying to state that the brokers, those of
the commission houses specially, express themselves in
the most favorable terms of the way the banks have acted
in the time of emergency. They treated their customers
with a prudent liberality worthy of all praise. To this
may be added also, the foreign banking houses. they may
export gold, but they know how to take care of customers
in a time of distress.
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